Canada’s International Student Arrivals decrease in 2025

Ottawa, September 2025 – Canada, long considered one of the world's most attractive destinations for international students, is facing a sharp and deliberate decline in student arrivals this year. New federal restrictions, stricter financial requirements, and higher rejection rates have converged to reshape Canada's international education landscape significantly.

Permit Caps and Stricter Rules

In January, the federal government set a cap of 437,000 study permits for 2025. This represents a 10% reduction compared to the previous year and marks the second consecutive year of deliberate cuts. Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) argued that the new cap was necessary to ease pressure on housing and healthcare, as well as to restore balance in the immigration system.

In addition to the cap, Ottawa rolled out more rigid procedural rules. Students must now secure a Provincial or Territorial Attestation Letter to prove that their applications align with provincial allocations. Even master's and doctoral students, once largely exempt from such requirements, are subject to these measures.

The government also increased the proof-of-funds requirement, raising the amount to nearly CAD 20,600 (excluding tuition fees) that students must show in accessible funds. This threshold is almost double what was required just two years ago, making Canada less accessible for applicants from middle-income countries.

Alarming Declines in Numbers

The effect of these policy changes has been immediate and dramatic:

-   Study permits issued between January and June 2025 dropped to 36,417, down more than 70% from 125,034 during the same period in 2024.
   
-   Canada recorded 88,617 fewer student arrivals in the first six months of 2025 compared with the same window in 2024.
   
-   Monthly issuance has fallen to historic lows, with only 3,819 permits granted in March, followed by 4,553 in May and 4,185 in June.
   
-   In April 2024, IRCC issued 45,806 permits; in April 2025, that number plunged to just 8,543.
   

These figures highlight not just a slowdown but an intentional recalibration of the system.

Rejection Rates Hit Record Highs

Beyond the reduced cap, students are also facing higher rejection rates. The overall visa refusal rate now stands at 62%, up from 52% in 2024 and well above the long-term average of 40%.

For Indian applicants, the single largest source of international students to Canada, the rejection rate is even more alarming, with some reports indicating that as many as 8 in 10 visas are being denied.

Educational consultants in India, Nigeria, and Pakistan have reported widespread disappointment and growing reluctance among families to consider Canada as a first-choice destination.

Why the Crackdown?

The Canadian government cites several overlapping reasons for the policy shift:

1.  Housing and Infrastructure Pressures  
   The influx of international students, particularly in major cities like Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal, has intensified the housing crisis. Average rents have soared, sparking public outcry. Ottawa argues that reducing arrivals will help incredible demand and stabilize markets.
   
2.  Quality Control and Fraud Prevention  
   The student visa system has faced scrutiny over fraudulent practices, including questionable private colleges and fabricated financial documents. Tighter checks and attestation requirements are designed to protect the integrity of the system.
   
3.  Labor Market Alignment  
   Policymakers want to ensure that international students study in fields that match Canada's long-term labor needs, such as healthcare, engineering, and technology. New restrictions on post-graduation work permits for non-qualifying programs reflect this shift.
   
4.  Political Commitment to Lower Immigration Levels  
  Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government has pledged to reduce temporary residents, including international students, from about 7.3% of the national population to under 5% by 2027. This aligns with growing domestic pressure to slow immigration.
   

Economic and Institutional Fallout

The sharp decline in student arrivals is sending shockwaves through Canada’s higher education sector:

-   Universities and colleges face steep revenue losses. International students typically pay tuition fees three to four times higher than domestic students, accounting for as much as 40% of operating budgets in some institutions. Analysts warn of a USD 1 billion shortfall across Canadian universities over the next two years.
   
-   Job losses are already mounting. Ontario colleges alone have reportedly cut more than 8,000 staff positions, and national estimates suggest 12,000 jobs across the sector may be at risk.
   
-   Small towns and mid-sized cities, which had relied on international student enrolments to boost local economies, are bracing for further decline in spending on housing, food, and retail.
   

Voices from the Ground

Educational institutions have expressed deep concern. Colleges and Institutes Canada warned that “without international enrolments, many campuses risk scaling back programs, reducing staff, and limiting services for domestic students.”

Student groups are equally vocal. “Canada marketed itself for years as a welcoming destination,” said Harpreet Kaur, a student association leader in Ontario. “Now thousands of students have spent money on applications, medicals, and language tests, only to face rejection. This feels like moving the goalposts halfway through the game.”

Consultants abroad note that Canada’s loss may be another country’s gain. Australia, the UK, and Ireland are already reporting rising inquiries from students who no longer see Canada as a reliable option.

International Comparisons

Canada’s tightening comes at a time when other popular destinations are re-evaluating their policies too:

-   Australia has introduced limits on student visas but is simultaneously offering clearer post-study work rights to attract high-value students.
   
-   The UK has restricted dependent visas for international students but continues to highlight its post-study work opportunities.
   
-   The US remains highly competitive, with record numbers of international student enrolments in 2024–25.
   

The shift signals a global race not just to attract students, but to align student flows with national economic and political priorities.

The Road Ahead

For Canada, the path forward will require balancing domestic pressures with international reputation. The government maintains that its goal is not to close doors, but to “rebuild trust and sustainability in the system.”

Yet stakeholders caution that abrupt policy shifts could damage Canada’s long-standing image as a safe, welcoming, and inclusive destination.

For aspiring students, the message is clear: studying in Canada is still possible, but the pathway is narrower, more competitive, and costlier. Early preparation, stronger financial evidence, and program selection aligned with federal priorities are more critical than ever.

Conclusion

2025 is shaping up as a turning point for Canada’s international education system. What was once an open door has become a guarded gateway, reflecting the country’s struggle to balance immigration with domestic capacity. While the government emphasizes sustainability, the steep drop in arrivals is sending ripples through classrooms, communities, and economies.

For many students worldwide, Canada remains a dream—but one that is now harder, costlier, and less certain to achieve.